According to the records on Oddshark, when Floyd Mayweather fought Shane Mosley in 2009, he was a -400 favorite. That means, you would have had to bet four hundred dollars on Mayweather to win a single hundred.
If you had gone for the underdog with Mosley, in Round 2 your heart would have been in your throat, when Mosley buckled Mayweather’s knees with a hard right. But then Mayweather recovered and won an easy decision, taking the last ten rounds of the fight.
The odds for that fight had made sense. Mayweather was clearly the best pound-for-pound boxer in the world, but Mosley had already cemented Hall of Fame status for himself. He was the lineal wleterweight champion, coming off from an impressive stoppage of the fearsome Antonio Margarito.
Mosley did not seem likely to defeat Mayweather but given his demonstrated boxing skill, it did not seem improbable that he could hurt Mayweather at some point, giving himself a shot to win.
Mayweather has fought eight times since then. Only twice were the odds closer than -400. For Saul Alvarez they were -300 and for Manny Pacquiao they were -200. Alvarez was over a decade younger and far larger and also undefeated in over 40 professional boxing matches. Pacquiao was a true world champion in four divisions–he was universally regarded as the second best pound-for-pound fighter of this century.
The odds for Mayweather’s last fight, against Andre Berto, were -3000. Otherwise stated: 30-1. That’s how little faith the betting public had in Berto. And they did not seem off base to me at the time, despite the fact that Berto was a former belt holder with wins over high-level boxing contenders.
Here is what does seem ridiculously off-base: as of three days out from the fight, Mayweather has fallen to just -400 against Conor McGregor, a Mixed Martial Arts fighter with exactly 0 professional boxing matches.
The idiots are crashing the gates on the Vegas sports books. Every hillbilly with two ten-dollar bills to rub together is dying to throw them down on McGregor. I am sure the hopes and prayers of bookmakers legitimate and otherwise all over this fair land today is that a big pile of smart money comes in late, when the odds have been driven as far down as possible.
I am not a betting man myself. But if I were, I’d for sure be taking a look at putting my money on Money for this one.